WASHINGTON, D.C.- The U.S. military is rapidly depleting vital weapons systems at a rate exceeding its industrial base’s capacity to replenish them, raising alarm over its strategic readiness in potential future conflicts.
Recent incidents–ranging from supporting Ukraine’s high-intensity counteroffensive to protecting ships in the Red Sea–have led to an explosion in munitions usage, from artillery shells, missiles, and interceptors being utilized. Ukraine alone used one year’s worth of U.S. 155 mm artillery rounds within eight weeks! Pentagon assessments indicate that in a hypothetical war against China the U.S. could use all available anti-ship cruise missiles and land attack weapons within 48 hours
Red Sea and Middle East: High Operational Cost North American warships–including Aegis-equipped destroyers–have intercepted hundreds of Houthi-launched drones and missiles during Red Sea defense operations from October 2023 through early 2025, in operations to safeguard shipping lanes in the Red Sea. Over 400 interceptors and 160 5-inch gun rounds were utilized, representing a costly pace not seen since World War II.
Acting Navy Chief James Kilby testified before Congress and Houthi attacks exposed critical vulnerabilities in naval ammunition supply chains, emphasizing an urgent need to speed up production. [Fox Business +12, Business Insider +12 and DefenseScoop +12].
U.S. forces deployed over 150 THAAD interceptors and about 80 SM-3 missiles in support of Israel in June 2025 during hostilities between Iran and Israel–representing nearly one quarter of their THAAD stockpile and straining long-term defense readiness according to The Wall Street Journal and The Week (both +2);
Industrial Base Struggles With $850 billion spent annually on defense spending, only about one percent (around 16%) goes toward weapons procurement. Most of this budget goes to personnel and operations while industry has diminished since the end of Cold War; suppliers have reduced availability while outdated facilities make meeting surging demands impossible for military services, according to The Week.
Although plans to ramp up production–particularly of 155mm artillery shells–are underway, industrial bottlenecks still persist. The United States currently produces around 40,000 shells each month with the aim of increasing this to 100,000 by 2026; but this capacity expansion requires modernizing facilities and rebuilding capacity in obsolete plants, an effort still in its initial stages and only now beginning.
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Replenishing Ukraine-level consumption would require years, meeting only part of its need, according to CSIS Responsible Statecraft.
Policy Responses and Strategic Risks Lawmakers are pressuring the Pentagon to establish a “Commercial Reserve Manufacturing Network”, consisting of high-tech commercial factories capable of rapidly switching over to wartime arms production if necessary. This network would function similarly to current Air and Navy Reserve Airlift or Sealift programs but instead includes weapons manufacturing.
Defense analysts advocate integrating commercial hardware and software solutions in order to increase production throughput and reduce procurement cycles, according to DefenseScoop.
But as multiple crises converge — from Red Sea threats to potential Pacific contingency planning — there is increasing anxiety that production timelines may be too slow. Analysts warn the U.S. may not be adequately equipped to defend itself in the event of a high-intensity conflict between China or Russia, without an armaments stockpile that is more robust and rapidly renewable, according to Business Insider.
Conclusion
As U.S. military operations across multiple theaters expand rapidly, battlefield use has far outstripped America’s ability to replenish stocks quickly enough. Critics warn that without significant procurement reform, factory upgrades, and manufacturing innovation initiatives accelerating swiftly enough, America could soon face future crises with dangerously diminished ammunition reserves.