Israel and Hezbollah, a militant Shiite group based in Lebanon, have engaged in an extended dispute that has seen numerous outbreaks of violence over time and fragile ceasefires. With tensions still high along Israel-Lebanon borders and uncertain conditions in southern Lebanon remaining volatile despite an agreement between both parties to cease hostilities, many observers wonder whether or not this fragile truce brokered by international bodies will hold. While such agreements have proven temporary solutions to years of intermittent clashes; their ultimate resolution remains unknown.
Israel-Hezbollah conflict, with deep political, military, and ideological underpinnings, first broke out into full-scale warfare in 2006. This 34-day conflict saw substantial casualties on both sides and caused significant infrastructure damage in Lebanon. Since then there have been occasional flare-ups including rocket fire exchanges, airstrikes, border skirmishes, and exchange of rocket fire; nevertheless the UN-monitored ceasefire has generally held strong but is constantly vulnerable.
One reason the ceasefire has largely failed is tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, supported by Iran and Syria, who view each other as direct threats. Hezbollah sees itself as a resistance movement fighting Israeli occupation of Lebanon; Israel views Hezbollah as a direct threat due to their formidable military capabilities which include thousands of rockets capable of striking deep into Israeli territory. Hezbollah military activities both inside Lebanon as well as involvement in Syria have further complicated security landscape.
Recent developments in the region have raised doubts over the sustainability of a ceasefire agreement, with Hezbollah’s expanding military presence and involvement in Syria posing particular difficulties for Israel. With support from Iran, this group’s growing influence in the region has caused Israel to express concern about any possible Iranian presence near their northern border – yet targeting Hezbollah positions often results in counterattacks along the Israel-Lebanon border.
Hezbollah’s ongoing military build-up in Lebanon, including fortification construction and weapon storage near civilian areas, has long been a cause of contention between them and Israel. While Hezbollah claims it acts in self-defense, many in Israel regard such actions as breaches of truce. Further aggravating matters is Hezbollah’s repeated threats against Israel and readiness to engage in military operations against it; any peace agreements seem tenuous at best in light of these circumstances.
Recent flare-ups were initiated by rocket attacks from southern Lebanon into Israeli territory, followed by Israeli airstrikes. While not on the scale of 2006 war, these exchanges raised alarm that another larger conflict could erupt at any moment; both parties appear to be engaging in high stakes game of brinkmanship with Hezbollah’s provocations escalating tensions while Israel military actions kept tensions heightened.
The United Nations plays an essential role in maintaining Lebanon’s fragile ceasefire. Since 2006, UNIFIL has been charged with monitoring it, although recent years have shown it to be increasingly ineffective at preventing violence. Hezbollah’s increasing military power and political presence complicate efforts at keeping peace; in addition, their involvement in Syria contributes to regional instability.
Internal Lebanese politics also contribute to the conflict. Hezbollah’s deep involvement in Lebanon’s political structure has given them significant leverage over its government, but that government struggles to control Hezbollah’s military actions due to divisions within Lebanon’s political elites or take appropriate actions against their activities – complicating any peace processes as Israel finds it hard to trust a Lebanese government that does not appear capable or willing to rein them in.
Are we confident in the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire in Lebanon? Currently, this remains unclear. Both parties have refrained from engaging in full-scale warfare since 2006; however, periodic violations to the ceasefire, coupled with rising regional tensions make the situation highly unpredictable. Likewise, its causes – territorial disputes, military build-ups, and ideological differences–remain unresolved leaving it open to collapse at any moment.
Peace must be nurtured between Israel and Hezbollah by both sides committing to de-escalation measures; however, given Hezbollah’s longstanding hostility toward Israel and their security concerns. For peace to last, international players – particularly the UN – should play an essential role in defusing tensions and encouraging both parties to enter dialogue; yet so long as political and military realities exist, any ceasefire between them remains fragile, subject to future violations and may eventually break down altogether.